Oil Price Outlook 2024–2026: The Trump Effect on Global Energy Markets
Faisal AlsagoffSince Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2024, oil prices have ridden a wave of political uncertainty, Middle East conflict, and supply-driven volatility. This article unpacks the key drivers of Brent crude prices from late 2024 through the end of 2026, with clear insights for everyday readers and strategic forecasts for investors. Learn how geopolitics, OPEC decisions, and U.S. energy policy are reshaping the global oil market—and where prices are headed next.
Since Donald Trump's re-election in November 2024, oil prices have experienced significant movements. This article explains the journey of oil prices from late 2024 through a projected view of 2026. Whether you're a casual reader or a seasoned investor, this guide breaks down complex geopolitical events and market strategies in simple terms, while also offering deep insights into industry forecasts.
#1. Price Movements Since Trump's 2024 Victory
Following the 2024 U.S. election, oil prices initially spiked due to market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Brent crude rose to the upper $70s, reflecting fears of instability in the Middle East and global energy policies. However, as the market adjusted to the new administration's energy outlook—favoring expanded U.S. production and fewer restrictions—prices began to stabilize and gradually decline.
#2. Key Phases in Oil Pricing (2024–2025)
- Late 2024: Prices surged to around $78 due to war fears and supply risks. Traders priced in possible disruptions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and Israel.
- Early 2025: Prices settled between $70–$75 as tensions eased and U.S. shale oil output increased. Trump’s pro-drilling stance created expectations of rising supply.
- Mid-2025: OPEC+ started discussing production increases. Despite brief spikes from political events, the market trend leaned toward oversupply.
- Q4 2025: Goldman Sachs and other analysts forecast a drop to the $59–$61 range, citing rising inventories and weaker demand from slower global growth.
#3. Geopolitical Influences on Oil Prices
Geopolitics play a critical role in oil price swings. Here’s how:
- Middle East Tensions: Events like the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict triggered temporary price spikes. While a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have sent prices above $120, such disruptions remained threats rather than realities.
- Trump’s Energy Policy: Focused on “energy dominance,” this policy encouraged aggressive U.S. oil production, undermining OPEC's ability to control global supply.
- Tariff and Trade Friction: Rumors of renewed tariffs and trade wars created economic uncertainty, which indirectly cooled oil demand projections.
#4. Projected Price Trajectory (2025–2026)
Experts expect Brent crude prices to remain in a downward range barring unexpected geopolitical escalations. Here’s a projection that reflects the base-case scenario:
- Late 2025: Brent is forecasted to dip below $60, led by increased output and slowing demand.
- 2026 Outlook: Barring war or global economic shocks, Brent will likely float between $54–$58 per barrel.
- Worst-case spike: A Strait of Hormuz shutdown could cause prices to soar to $120+, but this is considered a low-probability scenario.
#5. For Everyday Readers
Think of oil prices like a balance scale: more oil supply or less global travel/economic activity tilts prices down. War, conflict, or natural disasters tilt prices up. Trump's energy policies favor more supply, so prices tend to fall—unless there's a big crisis that interrupts oil flows.
#6. For Seasoned Investors
The forward curve remains in modest contango, reflecting expected surpluses. OPEC’s strategy is increasingly fragmented, with Saudi Arabia potentially tolerating lower prices to defend market share. U.S. shale resilience and automation continue to put downward pressure on marginal cost assumptions. Investors should monitor Q3 2026 inventory trends and shifts in Chinese demand as key inflection points.
Conclusion
The oil market from 2024 to 2026 is shaped by political leadership, global conflicts, and energy strategy. Under Trump’s second term, prices have stabilized but are drifting lower due to supply gluts and softening demand. While the risk of sudden spikes exists, especially from geopolitical flashpoints, the overall trend points to lower pricing unless unexpected events tip the scales dramatically.
References
Goldman Sachs. (2025). Oil Forecast Report. Reuters. Link
Wall Street Journal. (2025). Energy Prices and Global Market Trends. Link
EIA (2025). Short-Term Energy Outlook. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Link
Investors Business Daily. (2025). Brent Crude Market Updates. Link
